Checkpoint Ukraine: Europe’s Future
It is 1949: over 2,5 million East Germans in Berlin escaped to the West. February 24th, 2022, Russian troops enter Ukrainian territory under the pretext of denazify and demilitarizing Ukraine. Within a week, a record amount of 2,5 million civilians flees the destruction of Ukraine from Russian invaders.
While much of the world was grappling with the effects of the Covid restrictions, Vladimir Putin meanwhile was staging a large mock military exercise in November 2021. Over 150,000 troops were engaged in supposedly peacefully training exercises close to the Belarusian border and Crimea area. Several intelligence analysts worry about the significant size of this training exercise reaching full combat readiness.
International mainstream media, however, did not anticipate the unimaginable act of Russian aggression to invade Ukraine, much is left as peculiar attention-seeking from Vladimir Putin.
Cables intercepted several days earlier, just before the invasion, by Western intelligence indicates the request from President Xi to Vladimir Putin to withhold any attack before the end of the Winter Olympics, February the 20th, in Beijing.
February the 24th, 2022, the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops is a fact.
This is a tragedy not seen in the 75 years after WWII ended and with the unfolding of the Russian invasion right in front of the cameras, the strength of International organizations continues to be tested. While Ukraine has not been a member country of NATO or the prestigious European Union, President Zelenskyy with his team managed to shame the rest of the world.
NATO's Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, the European Commission, and fellow EU leaders, in particular the Germans and the Dutch, moved to block Ukraine just at the start of the Russian invasion up the third week of the attack when Russian troops were closing in from different sides on Ukrainian main cities. Incredibly, NATO vehemently blocked the delivery of weapons, materials, and the creation of a no-fly zone. The against-no-fly zone rationale was that such an act would push NATO to attack any incursion by the Russians with the possible escalation into a full-scale war between the West and Russia. Nevertheless, slow assessment and the indecisive leadership prevented the break on Vladimir Putin to stop the initial assault. More embarrassing, Vladimir Putin ordered a no-fly zone covering the 2014 loyalist to Russia areas at Donbas shortly after NATO decided against it.
NATO's fate was cemented: of a military alliance not effective enough to suppress external attacks through the 28 European NATO members, with only the U.K. and the U.S. standing up against the Russian aggression.
The EU block fared even worse, with no initiative to formulate economic sanctions, the Russians found that much-needed window of opportunity to remain on Ukrainian land. Both the U.S. and U.K. were enraged to discover that personal preferences of key persons, either supported the Russian or Chinese ideology and limited the effectiveness of NATO and the EU.
The U.S. and U.K. moved quickly to oust the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and he was dropped from further negotiations between the Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia. European President Ursula von der Leyen was told not to appear in the public after her emotionally powered performances with no measurable effects other to hide the unwillingness to assist Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, a Marxist, was muted to further comment on the Ukrainian conflict, or talk directly with Ukraine's President Zeleskyy.
In later appearances, Jens Stoltenberg, Boris Johnson, and Joe Biden near-simultaneously confirmed that NATO would not install a no-fly zone covering the Ukrainian air space. The opportunity to act was lost.
After the initial refusal of EU members to place sanctions against Russia, well-coordinated actions, however, from the U.S. hit the first round of economic sanctions targeting Russia. In the space of mere days, the Russians were cut off from major commodity trading and finance networks such as SWIFT. International companies left Russia, and members of Putin’s inner circle were refused access to their wealth at International banks.
Contrary to the comments by European analysts questioning the effectiveness of sanctions, the economic impact will set the future for the Russian generations to deal with. This time, the U.S. reprogrammed the set of sanctions to allow for maximum economical destruction. Russia will end 2022 as a region that only can rely on its internal consumption with no significant export power or strong partners like China.
To compensate for the lackluster willingness of the 28 European NATO members to assist Ukraine, the U.S. made commitments for the delivery of the much-needed weapons to defend against Russian troops. The Ukrainians in turn have shown to be masters of a never seen fighting spirit. To the astonishment of Western and Russian observers, the Russian troops did not succeed to overrun Ukraine.
Ukraine continues to remind the 28 European NATO members, not to confuse loyalty with alliances that only replace a sense of false security. The message is loud and clear: Vladimir Putin and China do not project a vision of allowing a peaceful existence build on trust, respect, and fair treatment.
In 2019, the Ukrainians knew that the moment they changed leadership through democratic elections, President Zelenskyy, and his talented cabinet would change the borders of Europe indefinitely.
What does Ukraine's future hold?
Similar to the 1949 East-West border division separating the West from the Russians, the U.S. will move to the Ukrainian country away from Germany, away from a country that benefitted too much already from the generosity of the Americans. Germany will finally mobilize and create an army with a promised allocation of nearly 100 billion Euros. Enough to let Russia and China rethink their political 'ambitions'.
Meanwhile, Checkpoint Ukraine: the U.S. will again assist Europe with the placement of troops and generous funding in Ukraine likewise it did for the Germans and other Europeans.
However, this time, we will witness a country and the neighboring area Georgia, that by far will surpass the lackluster attitude of the 28 European NATO members after they failed to assist a country in great need.
Ukraine will be a country living the spirit of democratic values, fairness, and keeping the peace for this region, not by words but hard-earned, through blood, sweat, and tears.
